International
energy supply and security has been largely dependent on the mutual
understanding of the two superpowers, USA and Russia, still dividing several
regions in the world to their power-political games.
Overall, after the fall of the
Soviet empire, international consultants have reverted their attention to
American foreign policy to see where security arrangements were necessary. The
diminishing influence of the Soviet Bear, the opening of the Caspian and Central
Asian states for foreign investment and the liberalization of the Arab economies
gave food for the theory that the USA is ruling, Uncle Sam’s word is law. The
last months this dictum has however come under growing pressure. Russia’s new
president Putin, slowly but steadily, has built up a more assertive Russian
foreign policy, first concentrating on its own neighbor countries, at present
with renewed attention for the second circle of influence, the Middle East,
Africa and Asia. This will and already has influenced the security of energy
supply of the Western countries. Until now, analysts have not presented new
answers but studies will have to be done to readdress these questions.
When Russian jet fighters swooped down over the US aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk
in the Sea of Japan, recently, the American crew did not see them coming until
it was far too late. If the Russian pilots would have harbored hostile intent,
the carrier would have been sunk! Several incidents, such as the above, in the
recent weeks have shown that for all America’s enormous complacency, its
former Cold War rival can still present a military challenge. There is a general
agreement in Washington that since president Boris Yeltsin stood down last
March, US-Russian relations have been on the slide. Washington found in Yeltsin
a biddable partner. The much younger and more energetic Putin, aged 48, is
increasingly taking on the US around the world. Since becoming president of
Russia, Putin has recommended arms sales to Iran. He has been assiduously
rebuilding commercial links with America’s greatest foe, Iraq, helping to
develop its oilfields in defiance of UN sanctions. And thirdly, he has
intervened in the US-led Middle East peace process, recently hosting Arafat in
Moscow and courting Arab opinion.
The Russian leader is also challenging the USA in Asia, by courting directly
with India, signing lucrative arms deals. Additionally, he has cemented the ties
with China, increasing the military and weapons exports to this country, already
identified by President-elect George W. Bush as the biggest potential 21st
century threat to American (Western security).
Last November, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov announced already in
Beijing his government’s open support for an axis consisting of Russia, China
and India, whenever these states wanted it. The main driver behind this
political program is a comprehensive and global opposition to American global
policy.
Of importance is the combined Russian-Chinese policy to exclude the United
States from the Central Asian region. Both countries want to monopolize the huge
energy resources located there, stifle democracy and opposition. The latter
largely under the pretext of addressing terrorism, while placing pro-Moscow
appointees in charge of those states ”militaries and police, integrate them
with Russia’s and China’s forces, integrate those states’ resources and
defense industries with their own, and mobilize political support for
anti-American agendas.”
The anti-American approach, would benefit both parties. To the extent that the
international agenda can be focused on Islamic separatism, terrorism, and United
States’ threats to international order as expressed in the Kosovo operation,
China and Russia could shift the spotlight from a focus on their own continuing
imperial and aggressive revisionism.
Another motive for the tripartite cooperation (Russia, India, China) would be
the shared opposition to nationalist or religious Muslim assertion in Kashmir,
Central Asia and Xinjiang (Chinese province). All this could divert
international/American attention from the underlying policy, ENERGY.
All in all, international political considerations related to the border states
of Russia, or former Soviet Union, are and will be related to the energy
resources. Growing dependency and energy requirements of the Western countries,
higher oil prices and instability in the Middle East are proponing the thesis of
the importance of Caspian and Central Asia. The build up of an
anti-American/Western block in Asia and the Caspian, with enormous potential of
a renewed anti-western front in the Middle East, would indefinitely threaten
energy security of supplies in the coming years. The world should watch out for
a renewed East-West confrontation, this time related to energy resources that
are dwindling. The time is right to act, the possibility of a new Iron (Oil/Gas)
curtain is possible. For Europe and the USA with the energy resources needed on
the wrong side of the curtain.
Points that are still in the USA’s favor are however the facts that Russia
still needs IMF, World Bank and private sector western loans and capital
investment if Russia’s still dire economic situation is to improve. There is
still much room for leverage in this area – although it may diminish as
Putin’s global search for trade, exports and business proceeds. A more
pro-active approach of these questions, with in depth attention for the
developments around Iraq, Iran, Libya and the Caspian is needed.
Reprinted with permission of the
author. mideastinfo.com makes no claim to copyrights.
Reprinted as submitted.